Sunday, 30 October 2011

Comparison of Poker Memory vs Non Poker memory

Here is an example of a hand I found on a message board. In fact this particular player includes more detail than your normal player. I wanted to show how poker memory may have saved him his stack.
 
Regular memory is as follows:
 
$1-$2 obviously.
I'm bought in for $160, am sitting with about $250 behind.
Villian is a pretty tight Asian dude, about 40ish. He's been playing a decent number of hands, betting aggressively when does play, and as a result, hasn't shown down much in the 3 hours I've been there. When he has shown down, he's had it, and he's built his stack up to about $400 or so. He's got me covered.

I've been pretty much card dead and grinding for 3 hours when I look down at JhJs in middle position. Tight villian makes it $12 UTG+1 and gets one caller. I pop it up to $38 and he ponders it for a minute before calling. Other player folds.

This guy is not calling with any 2, so I'm putting him on maybe a mid pair he's set mining, 7's to Q's, or AK, AQ. That's pretty much my thought on his range.

Flop comes out 3-5-9 all spades. He bets out about $35 into about a $90 pot. Small bet, seems kinda weak to me. Maybe AK with the A of spades, and he wants to see a cheap turn. Maybe something like 10's and he's not sure where he's at.

I want to raise, but stack size is awkward now. I have about 210, I want to bet about the pot, try to price out any nut draw or maybe get value against 8-8, 10-10. Problem is, that would make the pot $225 and I'd have $100 behind. I have the J of spades as a re-draw if my read is way off and he hit a set, so screw it. I shove.

Spew? Awful play?

He thinks for about 10 minutes. Literally. So at this point I'm pretty sure I'm good. He didn't flop a flush, and maybe even if he hit a set he thinks I did with an AK type hand.

Results once I get some opinions.

OK

Here is how the hand might look like when you use the poker memory system

$1-$2 obviously.
I'm bought in for $160, am sitting with about $250 behind.

Villian is a pretty tight Asian dude, about 40ish. He's been playing a decent number of hands would be Villian has played 6 out of his last 50 hands giving me a VPIP of 12%. On a 10% hand range he is playing AA-99 any suited 10 or higher any unsuited Queen or higher. at 15% he is playing AA-88 any suited 10 or higher any jack or higher.

betting aggressively when does play, and as a result, hasn't shown down much in the 3 hours I've been there. When he has shown down, he's had it, and he's built his stack up to about $400 or so. He's got me covered. He has played qq kq and aks in position 4 and his cbet% is 66.66%

I've been pretty much card dead and grinding for 3 hours when I look down at JhJs in middle position. Tight villian makes it $12 UTG+1 and gets one caller. I have JJ and if I were to get all my money in with him which will most likely happen and I want to have a minimum mathematical win rate of 60% based on any 2 cards in his range, his range would have to be more than 20% for me to play. In this situation at best I am dominated or racing. Calling for a set would be the prudent move. 


I pop it up to $38 and he ponders it for a minute before calling. Other player folds. 
This guy is not calling with any 2, so I'm putting him on maybe a mid pair he's set mining, 7's to Q's, or AK, AQ. That's pretty much my thought on his range.  (look at how much different the ranges are )
Flop comes out 3-5-9 all spades. He bets out about $35 into about a $90 pot. Small bet, seems kinda weak to me. Maybe AK with the A of spades, and he wants to see a cheap turn. Maybe something like 10's and he's not sure where he's at
. Not much you can beat here which is why the reraise is an error any higher spade or overcard turn river you most likely lose. He either has a higher spade draw or a better hand, very unlikely he has anything else.
I want to raise, but stack size is awkward now. I have about 210, I want to bet about the pot, try to price out any nut draw or maybe get value against 8-8, 10-10. Problem is, that would make the pot $225 and I'd have $100 behind. I have the J of spades as a re-draw if my read is way off and he hit a set, so screw it. I shove.
( by making the re raise early without that key VPIP information he or she has now put themselves into a shove situation with their stack)


This was the result

All right. Thanks for the responses everyone.

I lost the hand when, after literally 10 minutes of thinking (he apologized for taking so long about 3 times), he flipped over KK with the K of spades.

I was pretty shocked. IMO, that's a 4 bet pre flop number one, and secondly, with the second nut draw, I think it's a snap call on my flop push.

After the hand I was wondering if I played it too fast, but after thinking about it for a day or two, I'm not sure given the information I had, that I would ever play it any different.
( had he had the VPIP information and the actual ranges and actual hands he played in that position he may have slowed down on this one )
Now I have made assumptions we do not know his actual range and other information. Like he doesn't 4 bet with KK but that could all be committed to memory.


Would you make a different decision if you had more information vs what he told you?

I welcome comments



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